Dear Willy,
is unfortunately a lot of time gone by since you gave me your last post you sent future. For my late reply, there are many reasons, but a very important, I believe we are entering a new Quality in our discourse.
To stay in our parable of the Ping-Pong, so we strain our common way of shaping the future of post over and over: your last ball was not returned I, you made the point! I think we have time being told all that the scientific basis for our further projects darstellt.Wir do so solutions to offer a good way in the future. If it is really important prevents us no one getting back science to argue further. Now, let us but turn to the conclusions which in our view of reality in general and the self-assembly in particular for concrete social development results.
So I will make a mark. Like any impact this will also be carefully considered and well placed. That is one reason for the long time of my silence, but now I think I have identified the point on your half of the table, I want to take in order to find again a good game. But first I must put myself in position to have to find exactly my position so I can set the correct premium. Therefore, I must be connected for a while with my view on the future and I think about the purpose of this next "game" stop.
must first agree to that course, that no one knows what the future actually will look like. I, too, and I think, not even you. There is simply no way to predict. Nevertheless, do the people since the beginning of time, even if they were always disappointed since then. Even today we see the weather report on television banned, probably know that the weather is so similar to or completely different can be. There must be something deeply human need in the future vision and it can not be the truth of the forecast, because otherwise we would have to have given up the long evolutionary. The most significant
look into the future seems to me the possibility of the orientation of one's actions. We always prepare ourselves for the future. We want the best out our future and the future of the people in our circle of life, our families and friends, our cities and countries, and indeed the world, makes. It is quite interesting that this "in-the-future-looks" very parallel to our ethical framework is: Our ethics we use to guide our actions. Incidentally, this analogy holds up to the Valuation: We take our expectations of the future as a measuring line for assessing the success of our actions. Similarly, we take our ethical framework to evaluate our actions ex post.
Why me this digression important? On the one hand, I want to show that the view into the future important for us humans, is so vital. He makes us human, it allows us to plan and evaluate our actions.
want other hand, I also recall are as closely related to our value system and our future vision together and interwoven. Future appears to be the place to meet the our forward-looking ratio and our ethos.
future vision obviously has two sides: an ethical and rational. A beschrebt the field of what is desirable and one that is possible, the probable describes. Also n the future we will post this dichotomy can not escape, though we will play heavily on the rational side.
Now a second coordinate my position. If we can once metaphysical methods for the future vision in mind (that is, all the nice ladies with crystal balls, the different oracle at Delphi and Olympia, the Leberbeschau and the interpretation of bird flight and many others, quite comprehensively what people use to satisfy their future urge all! ), then we shall for the determination of the future, only the knowledge of the present are available. Already we are in a nice and inescapable paradox: we know only ensures that the future will be different than the present. Nevertheless, we must take this in hand, what we know about the present. Actually, a classic case of inadequate tools, as they wanted with a screwdriver get a nail out of the wall.
Here we are faced with a case, more precisely, in the case of a science. Many scientific theories describe processes: the orbit of the planet, the progress of a chemical reaction, etc. It is (quite wrongly) inferred that science, especially natural science, a special position in view of the future holds. It will always be regarded as a particularly reliable oracle. Now if science in general could see so well in the future, there should not override the current economic crisis. And if science in particular would be able to do so, there should be no man-made disasters such as Chernobyl or the dried Aral Sea. In addition, the report would always agree. Enough evidence to the contrary! But as we have already discussed: science has nothing to do with truth but everything to do with a very efficient method for dealing with reality. It would be a fatal misjudgment of science, so to speak, they degrade into a "super-oracle"!
is also possible to avoid even a second, widespread event right at the beginning: the "futurist" trap. Since the piquancy is already in its name: How does something "do research" (ie deal with the reality) that there is not, by definition? So our brave undaunted the future researchers do research Present and the past to provide trends (and if they do not even know anymore, even "mega trends") to close, and again from today morning. This contradicts the only real experience we have the steady transition from the present into the future: The future is different, it is surprising and it is the source of "new", "not-never-been done before." So even this tempting basis of the future view is untenable (although it is delivering entertaining books also quite worth reading, if not "faith-value" are.
place where so I taking me? From where I will take the charge in the future ? Well, the easiest way out is the future not to "predict". It also saves all the same trouble with not arrived prophecies. I will therefore only the principles of development that we can derive from the earlier contributions in discourse. And I am their logical connections, to show their interactions. So do not predict what the future looks like, but a guide on how to "make" future.
I know that I am so very full mouth. But I think we first need to tear down some outdated and fossilized approaches to make sense to go to the construction of the building of the future. And we need some risk in this construction project. But as they say in the third and very little verse sung by the Austrian national anthem: "With courage, into new times, free, and they believed us walk ...". I happen to have a soft spot for third stanzas, although they are hardly sung, but often have a lot of wisdom in it.
brings me to the last location information that I need to do before I serve. In my view we are faced with a very sharp break with our next steps from today into tomorrow. This finding is based on an analysis of the present. We see strong environmental challenges: the large cycles of nature are shaken, we have an unparalleled extinction of species, we have encountered the ecological carrying capacity limits of almost all ecosystems in which People live. We are facing a profound change in the resource base of our society, as oil and natural gas in the foreseeable future in increasingly smaller quantities are available. We midst of an economic crisis, and no one saw coming that no one knows how the economy will look like "after". We are faced with massive changes in the political arena, with a Europe that is growing internally and externally, with the U.S., as a world power fade slowly and with entirely new players like China and India, but also for political Islam on the world stage. I no more and no less than a "turning point" expect, one of those extraordinary times in which the logic of Development is changing in all areas. Especially in such times it is both stupid and criminal, to the here and now want to derive the morning!
So, I stand firmly, and now my charge: the future perspective is always shaped by the people of the evolution of the forces shaping them. One can see this, one can not predict the future, but probably the reasons and motivations of the actions that are set by people. Next closed, you do not know what to build the people, but you know WHY they want to build it.
This is so to speak, once the "twist" that I give to my ball. Now comes the direction: the development paradigm of this era is the self-organization, that is exactly the kind of edifice that we have spent our forward post from a scientific point of view. Gone are the days of the mechanistic picture of the development as the end of a cosmic machine. Gone are the associated logics that growth as well as the independence of the systems to the radical, independent individuality of people, their detachment from nature and the fate of other people.
He is now flying, my ball Now I am waiting for your "Return" with great anticipation. Let's build a guide to action for the future on the basis of self-organization! What kind of a game!
With best wishes to you and your people
Your Michael
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